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베이지안 임상 1상 시험×베이지안 무작위 임상시험×
분야역학역학
계열Process / pipelineProcess / pipeline
기원 연도19901980s–2000s (formal methodology consolidated ~2004–2006)
창시자O'Quigley, Pepe & Fisher (Continual Reassessment Method)Donald A. Berry and David J. Spiegelhalter (applied Bayesian inference formally to RCT design)
유형Adaptive Bayesian dose-finding designRandomized experimental study with Bayesian inference
원전O'Quigley, J., Pepe, M., & Fisher, L. (1990). Continual reassessment method: a practical design for phase 1 clinical trials in cancer. Biometrics, 46(1), 33–48. DOI ↗Spiegelhalter, D. J., Abrams, K. R., & Myles, J. P. (2004). Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation. Wiley. ISBN: 978-0471499756
별칭Bayesian dose-finding trial, CRM trial, continual reassessment method trial, Bayesian dose-escalation studyBayesian RCT, Bayesian adaptive trial, Bayesian clinical trial design, BRCT
관련55
요약A Bayesian Phase I clinical trial uses prior probability models and sequential Bayes updating to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of a new agent. Unlike the traditional 3+3 rule-based escalation, the Bayesian approach revises a dose-toxicity curve continuously as each patient's outcome is observed, allowing faster convergence to the true MTD while minimising exposure of patients to unsafe or subtherapeutic doses.A Bayesian randomized clinical trial (Bayesian RCT) combines the rigour of random treatment allocation with Bayesian statistical inference, allowing researchers to incorporate prior evidence and update beliefs continuously as trial data accumulate. Unlike the classical frequentist RCT, it yields direct probability statements about treatment effects and supports pre-specified adaptive stopping rules based on posterior probabilities.
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