방법 비교

	ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) 모형	지수적 GARCH (EGARCH)	극단값 이론 (Extreme Value Theory, EVT)
분야	계량경제학	계량경제학	재무학
계열	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
기원 연도	2015	1991	2001
창시자	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Nelson	Coles (textbook treatment); McNeil, Frey & Embrechts
유형	Univariate time-series model	Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant)	Tail / extreme-event model
원전	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370.	Coles, S. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer. ISBN: 978-1852334598
별칭	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH	EVT, generalized extreme value, generalized Pareto distribution, peaks over threshold
관련	5	4	5
요약	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance.	Extreme Value Theory is a statistical framework for modelling the rare events that live in the tail of a probability distribution. As developed in Coles (2001) and applied to risk by McNeil, Frey & Embrechts (2005), it offers two standard routes: the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for block maxima and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), used in the peaks-over-threshold approach, for exceedances above a high threshold.