手法を比較

	時系列クロスバリデーション（ローリング/エクスパンディングウィンドウ）	Diebold-Mariano予測精度等価性検定
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Process / pipeline	Hypothesis test
提唱年	2012	1995
提唱者	Christoph Bergmeir & José Benítez	Francis Diebold & Roberto Mariano
種類	Forecast evaluation procedure	Non-parametric forecast comparison test
原典	Bergmeir, C., & Benítez, J. M. (2012). On the use of cross-validation for time series predictor evaluation. Information Sciences, 191, 192–213.	Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 253–263.
別名	Rolling-Origin Cross-Validation, Walk-Forward Validation, Expanding Window Evaluation, Zaman Serisi Çapraz Doğrulama	DM Test, Test of Equal Forecast Accuracy, Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test, Tahmin Doğruluğu Eşitliği Testi
関連	3	3
概要	Time-series cross-validation is a resampling procedure designed for sequentially ordered data. Instead of randomly partitioning observations — which would destroy temporal structure and introduce data leakage — it advances a forecast origin one step at a time, fitting a model on all past data up to that origin and evaluating it on the immediately following out-of-sample period. Economists, financial analysts, and meteorologists use it whenever an honest, operationally realistic estimate of predictive accuracy is required for a time-ordered process.	The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test, introduced by Diebold and Mariano in 1995, is a widely used non-parametric procedure for formally comparing the predictive accuracy of two competing forecasting models. It evaluates whether the difference in forecast errors between two models is statistically significant, without requiring nested models or specific distributional assumptions about the forecasts, making it broadly applicable across economics, finance, and time-series analysis.