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| 構造的 breaks を考慮した移動平均 (MA) モデル× | 構造的ブレークARモデル× | |
|---|---|---|
| 分野 | 計量経済学 | 計量経済学 |
| 系統 | Regression model | Regression model |
| 提唱年≠ | 1989–1992 | 1989-2003 |
| 提唱者≠ | Perron (1989); Zivot & Andrews (1992) | Perron (1989); Bai & Perron (1998, 2003) |
| 種類≠ | Time series model with structural change | Time-series model with structural change |
| 原典≠ | Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361–1401. DOI ↗ | Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22. DOI ↗ |
| 別名 | MA model with structural change, broken MA model, MA with regime shift, structural break moving average | AR model with structural change, breakpoint AR model, piecewise autoregressive model, AR model with regime shifts |
| 関連≠ | 5 | 6 |
| 概要≠ | A Moving Average (MA) time series model augmented to accommodate one or more structural breaks — abrupt shifts in the mean, variance, or MA coefficients occurring at known or unknown break dates. Ignoring structural breaks in an MA process inflates forecast errors and distorts inference on the error dynamics. | The structural break AR model extends the standard autoregressive framework by allowing the intercept and autoregressive coefficients to shift at one or more unknown break dates. Each regime between consecutive break points is governed by its own AR parameters, capturing abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series caused by crises, policy shifts, or other shocks. |
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