手法を比較

	非線形VARモデル	ベクトル自己回帰 (VAR)
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1990s–2000s	1980
提唱者	Tsay (1998); Krolzig (1997); Tong (1990) for threshold framework	Christopher A. Sims
種類	Multivariate nonlinear time series model	Multivariate time-series model
原典	Tsay, R. S. (1998). Testing and modeling multivariate threshold models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93(443), 1188–1202.	Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48.
別名	NLVAR, nonlinear vector autoregression, threshold VAR, TVAR	VAR, VAR model, vector autoregressive model, multivariate autoregression
関連	4	5
概要	The Nonlinear VAR (NLVAR) model extends the standard vector autoregression by allowing the dynamic relationships among multiple time series to switch or change smoothly depending on an observed threshold variable, a latent regime state, or a smooth transition function. It is used when economic systems exhibit asymmetric responses, regime shifts, or state-dependent dynamics that a linear VAR cannot capture.	Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model in which each variable is regressed on its own lags and the lags of all other variables in the system. Originally proposed by Sims (1980) as a data-driven alternative to large structural macroeconomic models, VAR has become the standard workhorse for dynamic analysis in empirical economics and finance.