手法を比較

	移動平均 (MA) モデル	自己回帰モデル（AR）
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1970	1970s (popularised 1976)
提唱者	Box and Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
種類	Linear time series model	Time series model
原典	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043
別名	MA model, MA(q) process, moving-average process, Box-Jenkins MA	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process
関連	5	6
概要	The Moving Average model of order q — written MA(q) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear combination of the current and past random shocks (innovations). Unlike the AR model which uses lagged values of the series itself, the MA model uses lagged error terms, making it well-suited for capturing short-lived disturbances that dissipate over q periods.	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.