手法を比較

	フーリエ GARCH モデル	ARCHモデル（Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity）
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	2000–2012	1982
提唱者	Ludlow & Enders (2000); extended by Enders & Lee (2012) Fourier framework	Robert F. Engle
種類	Volatility model	Conditional volatility model
原典	Ludlow, J., & Enders, W. (2000). Estimating non-linear ARMA models using Fourier coefficients. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(3), 333–347.	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.
別名	Fourier GARCH, Fourier-flexible GARCH, GARCH with Fourier terms, smooth-break GARCH	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model
関連	5	6
概要	The Fourier GARCH model embeds trigonometric Fourier terms into a standard GARCH framework to capture smooth, gradual shifts in the conditional variance process without requiring knowledge of exact structural break dates. By approximating unknown break patterns with sinusoidal functions, it jointly models volatility clustering and time-varying unconditional variance.	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.