手法を比較

	教育研究における反事実的影響評価	因果推論のための操作変数（IV）法
分野	因果推論	医療経済学
系統	Regression model	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2000s–2010s	1990s (modern applications)
提唱者	Blundell & Costa Dias; formalized for EU education policy by the European Commission Joint Research Centre	Angrist & Pischke (applied econometrics); rooted in econometric theory
種類	Quasi-experimental causal inference framework	Method
原典	Blundell, R., & Costa Dias, M. (2002). Alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics. Portuguese Economic Journal, 1(2), 91-115.	Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
別名	CIE in education, counterfactual program evaluation, causal impact evaluation, education policy impact evaluation	IV, two-stage least squares, TSLS, causal estimation
関連	5	3
概要	Counterfactual impact evaluation (CIE) is the systematic application of causal inference designs — such as difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, matching, and instrumental variables — to measure the genuine effect of education programs, policies, or interventions by constructing a credible counterfactual: what would have happened to participants had they not been treated.	Instrumental variables (IV) is an econometric method to estimate causal effects when treatment or exposure is not randomly assigned and confounding is severe or unmeasured. IV relies on a third variable (instrument) that influences treatment but does not directly affect the outcome, allowing researchers to isolate the causal effect from the noise of confounding. Developed extensively in econometrics (Angrist & Pischke, 1990s–2000s), IV methods are increasingly used in health economics and health services research to leverage natural experiments and policy changes.