手法を比較

	ベイズ型VARモデル（BVAR）	ベイズ型ベクトル誤差修正モデル（Bayesian VECM）
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1984	2002–2005
提唱者	Doan, Litterman & Sims	Kleibergen & Paap; Villani
種類	Multivariate time-series model	Bayesian multivariate time series model
原典	Doan, T., Litterman, R., & Sims, C. (1984). Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions. Econometric Reviews, 3(1), 1–100.	Kleibergen, F., & Paap, R. (2002). Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 111(2), 223–249.
別名	BVAR, Bayesian VAR, Bayesian vector autoregressive model, BVAR model	Bayesian VECM, B-VECM, Bayesian cointegrated VAR, Bayesian vector error correction
関連	5	5
概要	The Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model extends the classical VAR framework by incorporating prior beliefs about the model coefficients. Priors — most commonly the Minnesota prior — shrink VAR coefficients toward economically sensible values, dramatically reducing overfitting and improving out-of-sample forecast accuracy even when the number of variables is large.	The Bayesian VECM combines the classical Vector Error Correction Model — which captures both short-run dynamics and long-run cointegrating relationships among non-stationary multivariate time series — with Bayesian prior distributions over the cointegrating rank and coefficient matrices. This allows principled uncertainty quantification, incorporation of economic theory as priors, and coherent inference even in small samples.