手法を比較

	ベイズ autoregressive (AR) モデル	ベクトル自己回帰 (VAR)
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1971	1980
提唱者	Arnold Zellner; foundational Bayesian time-series work by West & Harrison	Christopher A. Sims
種類	Bayesian time-series model	Multivariate time-series model
原典	Zellner, A. (1971). An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics. Wiley. ISBN: 978-0471169376	Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48.
別名	Bayesian autoregressive model, BAR model, Bayesian AR, Bayesian time-series autoregression	VAR, VAR model, vector autoregressive model, multivariate autoregression
関連	6	5
概要	The Bayesian AR model estimates an autoregressive time-series process by combining a likelihood derived from the AR structure with prior distributions over the lag coefficients and error variance. Rather than producing single point estimates, it yields full posterior distributions, enabling principled uncertainty quantification and probabilistic forecasting.	Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model in which each variable is regressed on its own lags and the lags of all other variables in the system. Originally proposed by Sims (1980) as a data-driven alternative to large structural macroeconomic models, VAR has become the standard workhorse for dynamic analysis in empirical economics and finance.