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| Test Bayesiano di Radice Unitaria ADF× | Modello Bayesiano a Correzione d'Errore Vettoriale (Bayesian VECM)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Campo | Econometria | Econometria |
| Famiglia | Regression model | Regression model |
| Anno di origine≠ | 1991–1992 | 2002–2005 |
| Ideatore≠ | Sims & Uhlig (1991); Koop, Osiewalski & Steel (1992) | Kleibergen & Paap; Villani |
| Tipo≠ | Bayesian hypothesis test | Bayesian multivariate time series model |
| Fonte seminale≠ | Sims, C. A., & Uhlig, H. (1991). Understanding unit rooters: A helicopter tour. Econometrica, 59(6), 1591–1599. DOI ↗ | Kleibergen, F., & Paap, R. (2002). Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 111(2), 223–249. DOI ↗ |
| Alias | Bayesian ADF test, Bayesian unit root test, Bayesian Dickey-Fuller, BADF | Bayesian VECM, B-VECM, Bayesian cointegrated VAR, Bayesian vector error correction |
| Correlati≠ | 6 | 5 |
| Sintesi≠ | The Bayesian Augmented Dickey-Fuller (BADF) unit root test re-frames the classical ADF test within a Bayesian framework. Rather than computing a frequentist p-value, it quantifies evidence for or against a unit root by comparing posterior probabilities or Bayes factors under the null (unit root) and alternative (stationarity) hypotheses, incorporating prior beliefs about the autoregressive parameter. | The Bayesian VECM combines the classical Vector Error Correction Model — which captures both short-run dynamics and long-run cointegrating relationships among non-stationary multivariate time series — with Bayesian prior distributions over the cointegrating rank and coefficient matrices. This allows principled uncertainty quantification, incorporation of economic theory as priors, and coherent inference even in small samples. |
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