Módszerek összehasonlítása

	ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) modell	Poisson és Negatív Binomiális Regressziók	A Theta-módszer
Tudományterület	Ökonometria	Ökonometria	Ökonometria
Módszercsalád	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Keletkezés éve	2015	1998	2000
Megalkotó	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Cameron & Trivedi (textbook treatment); Hilbe (negative binomial)	Assimakopoulos & Nikolopoulos
Típus	Univariate time-series model	Generalized linear model for count data	Univariate time-series forecasting model
Alapmű	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Cameron, A. C. & Trivedi, P. K. (1998). Regression Analysis of Count Data. Cambridge University Press.	Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K. (2000). The Theta Model: A Decomposition Approach to Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 521-530.
Alternatív nevek	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	count regression, log-linear count model, negative binomial regression, Poisson / Negatif Binom Regresyon	theta model, theta forecasting, Theta Yöntemi — M3 Tahmin Yarışması Birincisi
Kapcsolódó	5	4	4
Összefoglaló	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Poisson regression is a generalized linear model for count outcomes — events tallied as non-negative integers such as hospital admissions, accidents, or article counts. It models the log of the expected count as a linear function of the predictors, and is developed in the standard count-data treatment of Cameron and Trivedi (1998); when the counts are over-dispersed, the closely related negative binomial model (Hilbe, 2011) is preferred.	The Theta Method is a univariate time-series forecasting model introduced by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos in 2000. It decomposes a series into two theta lines that capture its long-run trend and its short-run dynamics, forecasts each line separately, and combines them by a weighted average. Its simplicity and accuracy made it the winner of the M3 forecasting competition.