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Interrupted Time Series in Crime Analysis

Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis evaluates whether a law, policy, or intervention changed the course of a crime series. By modeling the level and slope of crime before and after a dated 'interruption' — a gun-control law, a policing crackdown, a sentencing reform — it tests whether the series jumped or bent at that moment relative to its prior trend. Box and Tiao formalized intervention analysis in 1975, and McDowall, McCleary, and colleagues brought the method to criminology in their widely used 1980 monograph.

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Izvori

  1. McDowall, D., McCleary, R., Meidinger, E. E., & Hay, R. A. (1980). Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Sage Publications. ISBN: 9780803914933
  2. Box, G. E. P., & Tiao, G. C. (1975). Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70(349), 70–79. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1975.10480264

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ScholarGate. (2026, June 22). Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Crime Policy Interventions. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/hr/criminology/interrupted-time-series-crime

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Citirana u

ScholarGateInterrupted Time Series in Crime Analysis (Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Crime Policy Interventions). Preuzeto 2026-06-25 s https://scholargate.app/hr/criminology/interrupted-time-series-crime · Skup podataka: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20539026