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| Model sa vremenski promjenjivim parametrima ARMA (TVP-ARCH)× | Model GARCH (Prognoziranje volatilnosti)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Područje | Ekonometrija | Ekonometrija |
| Obitelj | Regression model | Regression model |
| Godina nastanka≠ | 1980s–1990s | 1986 |
| Tvorac≠ | Extension of Engle (1982) ARCH; TVP-ARCH formalization credited to Nicholls & Quinn and subsequent state-space literature | Tim Bollerslev |
| Vrsta≠ | Conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying coefficients | Conditional volatility model |
| Temeljni izvor≠ | Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. DOI ↗ | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗ |
| Drugi nazivi | TVP-ARCH, time-varying ARCH, adaptive ARCH, state-space ARCH | GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini) |
| Srodne | 5 | 5 |
| Sažetak≠ | The Time-Varying Parameter ARCH (TVP-ARCH) model extends the classic ARCH framework by allowing both the conditional mean coefficients and the ARCH variance parameters to drift over time according to a random-walk or state-space process. This makes it possible to capture structural shifts in volatility dynamics without imposing a fixed parameter regime. | The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series. |
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