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ईटीएस: त्रुटि, प्रवृत्ति, मौसमी घातीय स्मूथिंग×साधारण न्यूनतम वर्ग (OLS) समाश्रयण×स्टेट स्पेस मॉडल (कलमन फिल्टर)×
क्षेत्रअर्थमितिअर्थमितिअर्थमिति
परिवारRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
उद्भव वर्ष200820191990
प्रवर्तकHyndman, Koehler, Ord & Snyder (state space framework)Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squaresHarvey; Durbin & Koopman (state space treatment); Kalman filter
प्रकारExponential smoothing state space modelLinear regressionState space time series model
मौलिक स्रोतHyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K. & Snyder, R. D. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer. DOI ↗Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗
उपनामexponential smoothing state space model, innovations state space model, Holt-Winters family, ETS — Hata/Trend/Mevsimsellik Üstel Düzleştirmeordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonustate space, Kalman filter, unobserved components model, Durum Uzayı Modeli (State Space / Kalman Filter)
संबंधित554
सारांशETS is a comprehensive exponential smoothing framework that automatically selects additive or multiplicative combinations of the error (E), trend (T) and seasonal (S) components of a time series. Formalised as an innovations state space model by Hyndman, Koehler, Ord and Snyder in 2008, it unifies and generalises the Holt-Winters family of forecasting methods.Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).A state space model is a general time series framework that describes a series through unobserved (latent) state variables linked by a measurement equation and a transition equation, with the states estimated in real time by the Kalman filter. Developed in the state space tradition of Harvey (1990) and Durbin & Koopman (2012), it nests ARIMA and exponential smoothing as special cases.
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