השוואת שיטות

	מודל ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	מודל אוטורגרסיבי (AR)	מודל ARDL לא-לינארי (NARDL)
תחום	אקונומטריקה	אקונומטריקה	אקונומטריקה
משפחה	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
שנת המקור	1970	1970s (popularised 1976)	2014
הוגה השיטה	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	Shin, Yu & Greenwood-Nimmo
סוג	Time series forecasting model	Time series model	Nonlinear cointegration model
מקור מכונן	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043	Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In R. C. Sickles & W. C. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (pp. 281–314). Springer.
כינויים	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process	NARDL, nonlinear bounds test, asymmetric ARDL, asymmetric cointegration model
קשורות	6	6	5
תקציר	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.	The Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model extends the linear ARDL bounds-testing framework to allow asymmetric long-run and short-run relationships. By decomposing the regressor into cumulative positive and negative partial sums, it tests whether increases and decreases in a variable exert different effects on the outcome — a feature especially relevant in financial and energy economics where positive and negative shocks rarely cancel out symmetrically.