השוואת שיטות
סקרו את השיטות שבחרתם זו לצד זו; שורות שבהן יש הבדל מודגשות.
| מודל ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)× | Exponential GARCH (EGARCH)× | רגרסיית ריבועים פחותים רגילים (OLS)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| תחום | אקונומטריקה | אקונומטריקה | אקונומטריקה |
| משפחה | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| שנת המקור≠ | 2015 | 1991 | 2019 |
| הוגה השיטה≠ | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Nelson | Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares |
| סוג≠ | Univariate time-series model | Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant) | Linear regression |
| מקור מכונן≠ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370. DOI ↗ | Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860 |
| כינויים≠ | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH | ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu |
| קשורות≠ | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| תקציר≠ | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance. | Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE). |
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