Child Welfare Risk Assessment
Child welfare risk assessment estimates the likelihood that a child will be maltreated in the future, in order to guide decisions about case opening, service intensity, and ongoing monitoring. Actuarial systems — the most validated form, advanced by Christopher Baird, Dennis Wagner, and colleagues — score a small set of empirically weighted case characteristics into a risk level that statistically predicts future maltreatment, and have been shown to outperform consensus-based clinical judgment in reliability and predictive validity. Risk assessment is distinct from, and complementary to, the safety assessment that addresses immediate danger.
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Sources
- Baird, C., & Wagner, D. (2000). The relative validity of actuarial- and consensus-based risk assessment systems. Children and Youth Services Review, 22(11–12), 839–871. DOI: 10.1016/S0190-7409(00)00122-5 ↗
- Shlonsky, A., & Wagner, D. (2005). The next step: Integrating actuarial risk assessment and clinical judgment into an evidence-based practice framework in CPS case management. Children and Youth Services Review, 27(4), 409–427. DOI: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2004.11.007 ↗
Comment citer cette page
ScholarGate. (2026, June 22). Actuarial and Consensus Risk Assessment in Child Welfare. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/fr/social-work/child-welfare-risk-assessment
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