Comparer des méthodes

	Modèle GARCH à Paramètres Variables dans le Temps (TVP-GARCH)	Modèle GARCH (Prévision de la volatilité)
Domaine	Économétrie	Économétrie
Famille	Regression model	Regression model
Année d'origine	1982–2013	1986
Auteur d'origine	Engle (1982) for ARCH/GARCH foundation; extended by Creal, Koopman & Lucas (2013) and others for time-varying parameter variants	Tim Bollerslev
Type	Volatility model with time-varying coefficients	Conditional volatility model
Source fondatrice	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987-1007.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
Alias	TVP-GARCH, time-varying GARCH, TV-GARCH, state-space GARCH	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
Apparentées	5	5
Résumé	The Time-Varying Parameter GARCH model extends the standard GARCH framework by allowing the conditional variance parameters — including the ARCH and GARCH coefficients — to change over time rather than remaining fixed throughout the sample. This makes it well-suited to financial and macroeconomic series where volatility dynamics evolve across different market regimes or economic episodes.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.