Comparer des méthodes

	Modèle ARCH à paramètres variant dans le temps (TVP-ARCH)	Modèle GARCH (Prévision de la volatilité)
Domaine	Économétrie	Économétrie
Famille	Regression model	Regression model
Année d'origine	1980s–1990s	1986
Auteur d'origine	Extension of Engle (1982) ARCH; TVP-ARCH formalization credited to Nicholls & Quinn and subsequent state-space literature	Tim Bollerslev
Type	Conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying coefficients	Conditional volatility model
Source fondatrice	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
Alias	TVP-ARCH, time-varying ARCH, adaptive ARCH, state-space ARCH	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
Apparentées	5	5
Résumé	The Time-Varying Parameter ARCH (TVP-ARCH) model extends the classic ARCH framework by allowing both the conditional mean coefficients and the ARCH variance parameters to drift over time according to a random-walk or state-space process. This makes it possible to capture structural shifts in volatility dynamics without imposing a fixed parameter regime.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.