Comparer des méthodes

	Test du placebo bayésien	Analyse de sensibilité pour la causalité
Domaine	Inférence causale	Inférence causale
Famille	Regression model	Regression model
Année d'origine	2010-2015	1983–2002
Auteur d'origine	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (Bayesian causal impact context); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (placebo permutation tradition)	Paul R. Rosenbaum (hidden-bias framework); extended by Cinelli & Hazlett (omitted-variable approach)
Type	Robustness check / falsification test	Diagnostic / robustness check
Source fondatrice	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Rosenbaum, P. R. (2002). Observational Studies (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 978-0387989679
Alias	Bayesian falsification test, Bayesian permutation placebo, Bayesian robustness check, Bayesian in-time placebo	sensitivity analysis, hidden-bias sensitivity analysis, Rosenbaum sensitivity analysis, omitted-variable sensitivity
Apparentées	5	4
Résumé	The Bayesian Placebo Test is a falsification strategy for causal inference that applies Bayesian inference to placebo scenarios — either fake treatments in the pre-intervention period, on unaffected units, or at fictitious cut-offs — to verify that observed treatment effects cannot plausibly arise by chance or from a misspecified model. It integrates prior information and yields posterior distributions of placebo effects for direct probabilistic comparison.	Sensitivity analysis for causality assesses how robust a causal conclusion is to unobserved confounding. Rather than assuming all confounders are controlled, it asks: how strong would an unmeasured variable need to be to overturn the estimated effect? It is an indispensable robustness check after any quasi-experimental or observational causal analysis.