Comparer des méthodes
Examinez les méthodes sélectionnées côte à côte ; les lignes qui diffèrent sont mises en évidence.
| Modèle autorégressif (AR) bayésien× | Autoregressive Vectoriel (VAR)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Domaine | Économétrie | Économétrie |
| Famille | Regression model | Regression model |
| Année d'origine≠ | 1971 | 1980 |
| Auteur d'origine≠ | Arnold Zellner; foundational Bayesian time-series work by West & Harrison | Christopher A. Sims |
| Type≠ | Bayesian time-series model | Multivariate time-series model |
| Source fondatrice≠ | Zellner, A. (1971). An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics. Wiley. ISBN: 978-0471169376 | Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48. DOI ↗ |
| Alias | Bayesian autoregressive model, BAR model, Bayesian AR, Bayesian time-series autoregression | VAR, VAR model, vector autoregressive model, multivariate autoregression |
| Apparentées≠ | 6 | 5 |
| Résumé≠ | The Bayesian AR model estimates an autoregressive time-series process by combining a likelihood derived from the AR structure with prior distributions over the lag coefficients and error variance. Rather than producing single point estimates, it yields full posterior distributions, enabling principled uncertainty quantification and probabilistic forecasting. | Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model in which each variable is regressed on its own lags and the lags of all other variables in the system. Originally proposed by Sims (1980) as a data-driven alternative to large structural macroeconomic models, VAR has become the standard workhorse for dynamic analysis in empirical economics and finance. |
| ScholarGateJeu de données ↗ |
|
|