Comparer des méthodes

	Modèle autorégressif (AR)	Modèle ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average)
Domaine	Économétrie	Économétrie
Famille	Regression model	Regression model
Année d'origine	1970s (popularised 1976)	1970
Auteur d'origine	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
Type	Time series model	Time series model
Source fondatrice	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
Alias	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)
Apparentées	6	5
Résumé	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.