Vertaile menetelmiä

	Kausiluonteinen ARIMA (SARIMA)	Holt-Wintersin kolminkertainen eksponentiaalinen tasoitus	SARIMAX
Tieteenala	Ekonometria	Ekonometria	Ekonometria
Menetelmäperhe	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Syntyvuosi	2015	1960	2015
Kehittäjä	Box & Jenkins (seasonal extension of ARIMA)	Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters	Box & Jenkins (ARIMA framework); SARIMAX extension with exogenous regressors
Tyyppi	Seasonal time-series model	Exponential smoothing forecasting model	Seasonal time-series regression model
Alkuperäislähde	Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C. & Ljung, G.M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342.	Hyndman, R. J. & Athanasopoulos, G. (2021). Forecasting: Principles and Practice (3rd ed.). OTexts.
Rinnakkaisnimet	seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, SARIMA — Mevsimsel ARIMA	triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme	seasonal ARIMA with exogenous variables, SARIMA with regressors, ARIMAX, SARIMAX — Dışsal Değişkenli Mevsimsel ARIMA
Liittyvät	5	4	4
Tiivistelmä	SARIMA is a seasonal extension of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model that adds seasonal differencing and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average terms. Developed within the Box, Jenkins, Reinsel and Ljung framework (5th edition, 2015), it forecasts series whose pattern repeats on a yearly, monthly, or weekly period.	Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series.	SARIMAX extends the seasonal ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) model by adding exogenous explanatory variables, so it can capture the effect of holidays, economic indicators, or policy variables on a time series. It combines non-seasonal and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average dynamics with external regressors, and is estimated by maximum likelihood in state-space form.