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| تنظیم فصلی X-13ARIMA-SEATS× | مدل آریما (میانگین متحرک یکپارچه خودرگرسیو)× | مدل SARIMA (Seasonal ARIMA)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| حوزه | اقتصادسنجی | اقتصادسنجی | اقتصادسنجی |
| خانواده≠ | Process / pipeline | Regression model | Regression model |
| سال پیدایش≠ | 1998 | 2015 | 2015 |
| پدیدآور≠ | U.S. Census Bureau; Findley et al. | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Box & Jenkins (seasonal extension of ARIMA) |
| نوع≠ | Non-parametric / model-based hybrid | Univariate time-series model | Seasonal time-series model |
| منبع بنیادین≠ | Findley, D. F., Monsell, B. C., Bell, W. R., Otto, M. C., & Chen, B.-C. (1998). New capabilities and methods of the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment program. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16(2), 127–152. DOI ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C. & Ljung, G.M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 |
| نامهای دیگر≠ | X-13ARIMA-SEATS, X-12-ARIMA, Census X-13, Mevsimsel Düzeltme X-13 | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, SARIMA — Mevsimsel ARIMA |
| مرتبط≠ | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| خلاصه≠ | X-13ARIMA-SEATS is the standard seasonal adjustment program produced by the U.S. Census Bureau, combining RegARIMA pre-adjustment with either the classical X-11 filter or the model-based SEATS signal-extraction algorithm. It is the official tool used by national statistical agencies worldwide — including Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — to remove recurring calendar and seasonal patterns from monthly or quarterly economic time series such as GDP, employment, and retail sales. | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | SARIMA is a seasonal extension of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model that adds seasonal differencing and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average terms. Developed within the Box, Jenkins, Reinsel and Ljung framework (5th edition, 2015), it forecasts series whose pattern repeats on a yearly, monthly, or weekly period. |
| ScholarGateمجموعهداده ↗ |
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