مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	مدل خودبازگشتی غیرخطی (NAR)	مدل آریما (میانگین متحرک یکپارچه خودرگرسیو)	مدل خودرگرسیون (AR)
حوزه	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی
خانواده	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
سال پیدایش	1978-1990	1970	1970s (popularised 1976)
پدیدآور	Tong, H. (threshold AR); Terasvirta, T. (STAR variant)	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
نوع	Nonlinear time series model	Time series forecasting model	Time series model
منبع بنیادین	Tong, H. (1990). Non-Linear Time Series: A Dynamical System Approach. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780198522201	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043
نام‌های دیگر	NAR model, nonlinear autoregression, NLAR, threshold autoregressive model	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process
مرتبط	6	6	6
خلاصه	The Nonlinear AR model extends the classical autoregressive framework by allowing the mapping from past values to the current value to follow an arbitrary or regime-switching nonlinear function. Major families include the Self-Exciting Threshold AR (SETAR), Smooth Transition AR (STAR), and neural network AR, each capturing different forms of asymmetry, regime shifts, or smooth nonlinear dynamics in univariate time series.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.