مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	Global VAR	پیش‌بینی‌های محلی	پنل VAR آستانه‌ای
حوزه	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی
خانواده	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
سال پیدایش	2004	2005	1996
پدیدآور	Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner	Oscar Jorda	Bruce Hansen and colleagues
نوع	International system model	Multi-horizon regression	Nonlinear panel model
منبع بنیادین	Pesaran, M. H., Schuermann, T., & Weiner, S. M. (2004). Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22(2), 129-162.	Jorda, O. (2005). Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections. American Economic Review, 95(1), 161-182.	Hansen, B. E. (1996). Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 12(3), 386-414.
نام‌های دیگر	GVAR, Multi-country VAR	LP-IR, Multi-horizon regression	Panel-VAR with regime switching
مرتبط	3	3	3
خلاصه	Global VAR (GVAR) is a large-scale macroeconomic modeling framework linking multiple countries (or regions) via trade and financial channels, allowing shocks in one country to propagate through the global system. Introduced by Pesaran et al. (2004), it solves the curse of dimensionality in international VAR models by estimating country-specific VARs conditional on foreign variables, then solving a system linking all countries. This approach is invaluable for analyzing global spillovers and international policy coordination.	Local Projections (LP) is a semi-parametric method for estimating impulse responses directly via multi-horizon regressions, bypassing VAR-model specification. Introduced by Jorda (2005), it projects outcomes h periods ahead onto current shocks and lags, producing impulse-response functions without assuming a particular lag structure or VAR order. This flexibility has made it the dominant approach in applied macroeconomics for measuring policy effects and shock transmission.	The Threshold Panel VAR extends the standard vector autoregression framework to accommodate regime-switching behavior where relationships change when a threshold variable crosses a critical level. Introduced by Hansen (1996) and applied to panels by Caner and Hansen (2001), it allows different dynamic relationships across regimes (e.g., expansions versus recessions) while exploiting the cross-sectional dimension of panel data. This nonlinear framework captures state-dependent policy effects and economic mechanisms.