مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	Global VAR	پیش‌بینی‌های محلی
حوزه	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی
خانواده	Regression model	Regression model
سال پیدایش	2004	2005
پدیدآور	Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner	Oscar Jorda
نوع	International system model	Multi-horizon regression
منبع بنیادین	Pesaran, M. H., Schuermann, T., & Weiner, S. M. (2004). Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22(2), 129-162.	Jorda, O. (2005). Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections. American Economic Review, 95(1), 161-182.
نام‌های دیگر	GVAR, Multi-country VAR	LP-IR, Multi-horizon regression
مرتبط	3	3
خلاصه	Global VAR (GVAR) is a large-scale macroeconomic modeling framework linking multiple countries (or regions) via trade and financial channels, allowing shocks in one country to propagate through the global system. Introduced by Pesaran et al. (2004), it solves the curse of dimensionality in international VAR models by estimating country-specific VARs conditional on foreign variables, then solving a system linking all countries. This approach is invaluable for analyzing global spillovers and international policy coordination.	Local Projections (LP) is a semi-parametric method for estimating impulse responses directly via multi-horizon regressions, bypassing VAR-model specification. Introduced by Jorda (2005), it projects outcomes h periods ahead onto current shocks and lags, producing impulse-response functions without assuming a particular lag structure or VAR order. This flexibility has made it the dominant approach in applied macroeconomics for measuring policy effects and shock transmission.