Bayesian Ex Post Facto Design
Bayesian ex post facto design investigates possible causal relationships among variables that have already occurred, without researcher manipulation of those variables, and quantifies uncertainty about those relationships using Bayesian statistical inference. The researcher selects groups that differ on an outcome or a presumed cause after the fact, then uses prior knowledge and observed data together — via Bayes' theorem — to estimate credible effect sizes, group differences, or predictors.
Source record
Citations copied verbatim from the method’s source record. No claim-level verification is inferred from them.
- Kerlinger, F. N. (1973). Foundations of Behavioral Research (2nd ed.). Holt, Rinehart and Winston. · URL
- Kruschke, J. K. (2015). Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan (2nd ed.). Academic Press. · ISBN 978-0124058880
Curated claims
Claims persisted in the evidence ledger, each with its own assessment.
This view does not invent a claim assessment when the ledger has none.
Related methods
Generated from the method graph and shown as machine-suggested relations — no evidence claim is inferred.