Methoden vergleichen

	Markov-Regime-Switching-Modell (MS-AR / MS-VAR)	ARIMA-Modell (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	Exponential GARCH (EGARCH)	Methode der kleinsten Quadrate (OLS)
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1989	2015	1991	2019
Urheber	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Nelson	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares
Typ	Regime-switching time series model	Univariate time-series model	Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant)	Linear regression
Wegweisende Quelle	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370.	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860
Aliasnamen	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu
Verwandt	5	5	4	5
Zusammenfassung	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance.	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).