Methoden vergleichen

	Johansen Kointegrationstest und Vektorfehlerkorrekturmodell	ARDL-Grenzentest (Pesaran-Grenzentest)	Vektorautoregressionsmodell (VAR)
Fachgebiet	Finanzwirtschaft	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1991	2001	2005
Urheber	Søren Johansen	Pesaran, Shin & Smith	Lütkepohl (textbook treatment); Sims (1980) macroeconometric tradition
Typ	Multivariate cointegration / vector error correction model	Cointegration test / Autoregressive distributed lag model	Multivariate time-series model
Wegweisende Quelle	Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580.	Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.	Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer.
Aliasnamen	Johansen test, VECM, vector error correction model, multivariate cointegration	Pesaran bounds test, bounds testing approach, ARDL cointegration test, ARDL Sınır Testi (Pesaran Bounds Test)	vector autoregression, VAR, VAR Modeli (Vektör Otoregresyon), vektör otoregresyon
Verwandt	3	4	4
Zusammenfassung	The Johansen procedure is a multivariate cointegration framework, introduced by Søren Johansen in 1991, that tests for long-run equilibrium relationships among several I(1) time series. It determines how many cointegrating vectors link the series and then builds a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to describe the short-run dynamics around that equilibrium.	The ARDL bounds test is an autoregressive distributed lag method that tests for a cointegrating (long-run level) relationship between time series, introduced by Pesaran, Shin and Smith in 2001. Unlike the Johansen procedure, it remains valid whether the variables are I(0), I(1) or a mix of the two, and it is more reliable than Johansen in small samples of roughly 30 to 80 observations.	Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model that treats several interdependent series symmetrically, letting each variable depend on its own past values and the past values of all the others. It is the standard tool for capturing mutual causality and joint dynamics, developed in the modern multiple-time-series tradition treated by Lütkepohl (2005).