Methoden vergleichen
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| ARIMA-Modell (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)× | GARCH-Modell (Volatilitätsvorhersage)× | Methode der kleinsten Quadrate (OLS)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fachgebiet | Ökonometrie | Ökonometrie | Ökonometrie |
| Familie | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Entstehungsjahr≠ | 2015 | 1986 | 2019 |
| Urheber≠ | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Tim Bollerslev | Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares |
| Typ≠ | Univariate time-series model | Conditional volatility model | Linear regression |
| Wegweisende Quelle≠ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗ | Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860 |
| Aliasnamen≠ | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini) | ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu |
| Verwandt | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Zusammenfassung≠ | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series. | Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE). |
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