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Bayesiansk Markov-model — Tilstands-overgangsmodellering med Bayesiansk parameterestimering

En Bayesiansk Markov-model er en simulationsmetode for tilstands-overgange, der kombinerer Markov-kæde kohortemodellering med Bayesiansk statistisk inferens. Ved at placere prior-fordelinger på overgangssandsynligheder og opdatere dem med observerede data, propagerer tilgangen fuld parameterusikkerhed gennem simuleringen, hvilket giver posterior-fordelinger over udfald som omkostninger, leveår eller kvalitetsjusterede leveår snarere end enkeltpunktestimater.

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Kilder

  1. Briggs, A., Sculpher, M., Claxton, K. (2006). Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation. Oxford University Press, Oxford. ISBN: 9780198526629
  2. Jackson, C. H., Sharples, L. D., Thompson, S. G. (2010). Structural and parameter uncertainty in Bayesian cost-effectiveness models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 59(2), 233-253. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2009.00684.x

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ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Bayesian Markov Model — State-Transition Modeling with Bayesian Parameter Estimation. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/da/simulation/bayesian-markov-model

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ScholarGateBayesian Markov Model (Bayesian Markov Model — State-Transition Modeling with Bayesian Parameter Estimation). Hentet 2026-06-15 fra https://scholargate.app/da/simulation/bayesian-markov-model · Datasæt: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20539026