Bayesiansk Systemdynamik — Sandsynlighedsbaseret parameterestimering og usikkerhedsforplantning i SD-modeller
Bayesiansk Systemdynamik (BSD) integrerer Bayesiansk statistisk inferens med kausale stock-and-flow simuleringsmodeller. Forhåndsviden om modelparametre opdateres ved hjælp af observerede tidsseriedata for at producere posteriorfordelinger, som derefter forplantes gennem simuleringen for at give sandsynlighedsbaserede prognoser og politikvurderinger snarere end enkeltstående deterministiske forløb.
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Method map
The neighbourhood of related methods — select a node to explore.
Kilder
- Rahmandad, H., & Sterman, J. D. (2008). Heterogeneity and network structure in the dynamics of diffusion: Comparing agent-based and differential equation models. Management Science, 54(5), 998–1014. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1070.0787 ↗
- System dynamics. Wikipedia. link ↗
Sådan citerer du denne side
ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Bayesian System Dynamics — Probabilistic parameter estimation and uncertainty propagation in system dynamics models. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/da/simulation/bayesian-system-dynamics
Which method?
Set this method beside its closest kin and read them side by side — the library lays the books on the table; the choice is yours.
- Bayesiansk Markov-modelSimulering↔ compare
- Bayesiansk Monte Carlo-simuleringSimulering↔ compare
- MarkovmodelSimulering↔ compare
- Monte Carlo-simuleringBeslutningstagning↔ compare
- Stokastisk SystemdynamikSimulering↔ compare
- System DynamicsSimulering↔ compare
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