Bayesian Kaplan-Meier analysis
Bayesian Kaplan-Meier analysis extends the classical Kaplan-Meier estimator by placing a prior distribution over the survival function and updating it with observed time-to-event data to obtain a full posterior distribution for the survival curve. This approach, rooted in Susarla and Van Ryzin's 1976 Dirichlet-process framework, yields credible intervals rather than confidence intervals and enables coherent incorporation of prior clinical knowledge, making it particularly valuable in small-sample or early-phase clinical settings.
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- Susarla, V., & Van Ryzin, J. (1976). Nonparametric Bayesian estimation of survival curves from incomplete observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 71(356), 897–902. · DOI 10.1080/01621459.1976.10480966
- Diaconis, P., & Freedman, D. (1986). On the consistency of Bayes estimates. The Annals of Statistics, 14(1), 1–26. · DOI 10.1214/aos/1176349830
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