Sammenlign metoder
Gennemgå dine valgte metoder side om side; rækker, der afviger, er fremhævet.
| SARIMA (Seasonal ARIMA)× | Holt-Winters tredobbelt eksponentiel udjævning× | Profet× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fagområde | Økonometri | Økonometri | Økonometri |
| Familie | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Oprindelsesår≠ | 2015 | 1960 | 2018 |
| Ophavsperson≠ | Box & Jenkins (seasonal extension of ARIMA) | Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters | Taylor & Letham (Facebook/Meta) |
| Type≠ | Seasonal time-series model | Exponential smoothing forecasting model | Decomposable (structural) time series model |
| Oprindelig kilde≠ | Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C. & Ljung, G.M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342. DOI ↗ | Taylor, S. J. & Letham, B. (2018). Forecasting at Scale. The American Statistician, 72(1), 37-45. DOI ↗ |
| Aliasser≠ | seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, SARIMA — Mevsimsel ARIMA | triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme | Prophet, Facebook Prophet, Meta Prophet, forecasting at scale |
| Relaterede≠ | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Resumé≠ | SARIMA is a seasonal extension of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model that adds seasonal differencing and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average terms. Developed within the Box, Jenkins, Reinsel and Ljung framework (5th edition, 2015), it forecasts series whose pattern repeats on a yearly, monthly, or weekly period. | Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series. | Prophet is a Bayesian structural time series model introduced by Taylor and Letham at Facebook/Meta in 2018. It forecasts a continuous series by decomposing it into separate, interpretable trend, seasonality, and holiday components, and is designed to be approachable for analysts working at scale. |
| ScholarGateDatasæt ↗ |
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