Compara mètodes

	Model GARCH (Previsió de la Volatilitat)	Model TGARCH (Threshold GARCH)
Camp	Econometria	Econometria
Família	Regression model	Regression model
Any d'origen	1986	1993-1994
Autor original	Tim Bollerslev	Zakoian (1994); Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (1993)
Tipus	Conditional volatility model	Asymmetric volatility model
Font seminal	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.	Zakoian, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931-955.
Àlies	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)	Threshold GARCH, TGARCH, GJR-GARCH, asymmetric GARCH
Relacionats	5	6
Resum	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.	The Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model extends the standard GARCH framework by allowing positive and negative return shocks to have asymmetric effects on conditional variance. Negative shocks — bad news — typically amplify volatility more than positive shocks of the same magnitude, a stylised fact known as the leverage effect. TGARCH captures this asymmetry through a threshold indicator that switches on when the previous period's shock was negative.