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Test de Diebold-Mariano de Precisió Predictiva Equivalent×Test dels signes×
CampEconometriaEstadística
FamíliaHypothesis testHypothesis test
Any d'origen19951946
Autor originalFrancis Diebold & Roberto MarianoW. J. Dixon & A. M. Mood
TipusNon-parametric forecast comparison testNonparametric median test
Font seminalDiebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 253–263. DOI ↗Dixon, W. J. & Mood, A. M. (1946). The statistical sign test. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 41(236), 557–566. DOI ↗
ÀliesDM Test, Test of Equal Forecast Accuracy, Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test, Tahmin Doğruluğu Eşitliği Testiİşaret Testi (Sign Test), one-sample sign test, paired sign test
Relacionats34
ResumThe Diebold-Mariano (DM) test, introduced by Diebold and Mariano in 1995, is a widely used non-parametric procedure for formally comparing the predictive accuracy of two competing forecasting models. It evaluates whether the difference in forecast errors between two models is statistically significant, without requiring nested models or specific distributional assumptions about the forecasts, making it broadly applicable across economics, finance, and time-series analysis.The sign test is the simplest nonparametric hypothesis test for deciding whether the median of paired differences — or of a single sample — differs significantly from a hypothesised value. Formalised by W. J. Dixon and A. M. Mood in 1946, it imposes virtually no distributional assumptions and can be applied to any data where individual differences can be classified as positive or negative.
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