قارن الطرق

	TGARCH (Threshold GARCH with Structural Breaks) لكسر البنية	نموذج GARCH (التنبؤ بالتقلب)	نموذج TGARCH (الانحدار الذاتي الشرطي غير المتجانس ذو العتبة)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1990-1993	1986	1993-1994
صاحب الطريقة	Lamoureux & Lastrapes (structural breaks in GARCH); Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (TGARCH/GJR-GARCH asymmetry)	Tim Bollerslev	Zakoian (1994); Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (1993)
النوع	Volatility model	Conditional volatility model	Asymmetric volatility model
المصدر التأسيسي	Lamoureux, C. G., & Lastrapes, W. D. (1990). Persistence in variance, structural change, and the GARCH model. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8(2), 225-234.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.	Zakoian, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931-955.
الأسماء البديلة	SB-TGARCH, threshold GARCH with structural breaks, GJR-GARCH with structural breaks, break-adjusted TGARCH	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)	Threshold GARCH, TGARCH, GJR-GARCH, asymmetric GARCH
ذات صلة	3	5	6
الملخص	Structural Break TGARCH extends the Threshold GARCH (GJR-GARCH) model to accommodate discrete, permanent shifts in the volatility process. By detecting structural breaks and incorporating them — either as regime-specific intercepts or dummy variables — the model separates genuine volatility persistence from spurious persistence induced by ignored regime changes, and preserves the asymmetric leverage effect that characterises equity and financial return data.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.	The Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model extends the standard GARCH framework by allowing positive and negative return shocks to have asymmetric effects on conditional variance. Negative shocks — bad news — typically amplify volatility more than positive shocks of the same magnitude, a stylised fact known as the leverage effect. TGARCH captures this asymmetry through a threshold indicator that switches on when the previous period's shock was negative.