قارن الطرق

	رقم التكاثر (R0 و Rt)	نموذج SIR الوبائي التقسيمي	المعادلات التفاضلية العشوائية (SDEs)
المجال	علم الأوبئة	علم الأوبئة	المحاكاة
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	1990	1927	1944 (theory); 1992 (numerical framework)
صاحب الطريقة	Diekmann, Heesterbeek & Metz	Kermack & McKendrick	Kiyosi Itô (Itô calculus, 1944); Peter Kloeden & Eckhard Platen (numerical methods, 1992)
النوع	Threshold parameter for epidemic spread	Deterministic compartmental ODE model	Continuous-time stochastic process model
المصدر التأسيسي	Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A. P., & Metz, J. A. J. (1990). On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28(4), 365–382.	Kermack, W. O., & McKendrick, A. G. (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 115(772), 700–721.	Øksendal, B. (2003). Stochastic Differential Equations: An Introduction with Applications (6th ed.). Springer.
الأسماء البديلة	Basic Reproduction Ratio, Effective Reproduction Number, Net Reproduction Number, Temel Üreme Sayısı	Kermack–McKendrick Model, Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Model, Compartmental Epidemic Model, SIR Epidemiyoloji Modeli	SDE, Itô equations, Stokastik Diferansiyel Denklemler (SDE)
ذات صلة	2	3	4
الملخص	The basic reproduction number R0 is the expected number of secondary infections produced by a single infectious individual introduced into a fully susceptible population. Formally defined and computationally grounded by Diekmann, Heesterbeek, and Metz in 1990 using the next-generation matrix approach, R0 serves as the central threshold parameter in mathematical epidemiology: if R0 > 1, an epidemic can establish itself; if R0 < 1, the outbreak dies out. The effective reproduction number Rt extends this to partially immune or partially susceptible populations over time.	The SIR model is a foundational mathematical framework for describing the spread of infectious diseases through a population. Introduced by William Ogilvy Kermack and Anderson Gray McKendrick in 1927, it partitions a closed population of size N into three mutually exclusive compartments: Susceptible (S), Infectious (I), and Recovered (R). A system of ordinary differential equations governs the flow of individuals between compartments, capturing epidemic dynamics with two key parameters — the transmission rate β and the recovery rate γ.	Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are differential equation models that combine a deterministic drift term — governing the average tendency of a system — with a stochastic diffusion term driven by a Wiener process (Brownian motion). Pioneered through Itô calculus by Kiyosi Itô in 1944 and given a comprehensive numerical treatment by Kloeden and Platen in 1992, SDEs are the standard modelling language for continuous-time systems subject to random noise, including financial asset prices, population dynamics, and physical processes.