قارن الطرق

	رقم التكاثر (R0 و Rt)	نموذج SIR الوبائي التقسيمي
المجال	علم الأوبئة	علم الأوبئة
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1990	1927
صاحب الطريقة	Diekmann, Heesterbeek & Metz	Kermack & McKendrick
النوع	Threshold parameter for epidemic spread	Deterministic compartmental ODE model
المصدر التأسيسي	Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A. P., & Metz, J. A. J. (1990). On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28(4), 365–382.	Kermack, W. O., & McKendrick, A. G. (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 115(772), 700–721.
الأسماء البديلة	Basic Reproduction Ratio, Effective Reproduction Number, Net Reproduction Number, Temel Üreme Sayısı	Kermack–McKendrick Model, Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Model, Compartmental Epidemic Model, SIR Epidemiyoloji Modeli
ذات صلة	2	3
الملخص	The basic reproduction number R0 is the expected number of secondary infections produced by a single infectious individual introduced into a fully susceptible population. Formally defined and computationally grounded by Diekmann, Heesterbeek, and Metz in 1990 using the next-generation matrix approach, R0 serves as the central threshold parameter in mathematical epidemiology: if R0 > 1, an epidemic can establish itself; if R0 < 1, the outbreak dies out. The effective reproduction number Rt extends this to partially immune or partially susceptible populations over time.	The SIR model is a foundational mathematical framework for describing the spread of infectious diseases through a population. Introduced by William Ogilvy Kermack and Anderson Gray McKendrick in 1927, it partitions a closed population of size N into three mutually exclusive compartments: Susceptible (S), Infectious (I), and Recovered (R). A system of ordinary differential equations governs the flow of individuals between compartments, capturing epidemic dynamics with two key parameters — the transmission rate β and the recovery rate γ.