Regression modelGrey systems
GM(1,1) 灰色预测模型
GM(1,1) 是灰色系统理论的核心预测模型，由邓聚龙于 1982 年提出，旨在从极少量的观测值和不完整信息中进行预测——这种情况下的经典时间序列模型（如 ARIMA）需要更多数据。它通过累加原始序列来揭示隐藏的指数趋势，拟合一个一阶灰色微分方程，并预测未来值，因此在数据记录较短的工程、能源和管理预测领域广受欢迎。
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来源
- Deng, J. L. (1982). Control problems of grey systems. Systems & Control Letters, 1(5), 288–294. DOI: 10.1016/S0167-6911(82)80025-X ↗
- Liu, S., & Lin, Y. (2010). Grey Systems: Theory and Applications. Springer. ISBN: 978-3-642-13937-6
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 2). Grey Model GM(1,1) Forecasting. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/soft-computing/grey-model-gm11
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