方法对比
并排查看您选择的方法；存在差异的行会高亮显示。
| 情景分析与假设模拟× | 蒙特卡洛模拟× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | 仿真 | 决策 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| 起源年份≠ | 1950s (origins); widely adopted in management since 1970s | 1949 |
| 提出者≠ | Peter Schwartz (scenario planning formalization), Herman Kahn (RAND Corporation, 1950s–60s) | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| 类型≠ | Structured analytical approach / simulation | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| 开创性文献≠ | Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. (2014). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118173671 | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| 别名≠ | what-if analysis, what-if simulation, stress testing, scenario planning | — |
| 相关≠ | 3 | 0 |
| 摘要≠ | Scenario analysis is a structured analytical approach that systematically compares system outputs across different combinations of uncertain input values. When paired with a quantitative model, it becomes a simulation — capable of stress-testing assumptions and projecting the range of plausible outcomes. Formalised in strategic planning by Peter Schwartz and Herman Kahn from the 1950s onward, the method is widely used in policy evaluation, business forecasting, financial risk assessment, and scientific model exploration. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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