Process / pipelineSimulation / optimization
贝叶斯情景分析——通过贝叶斯推断对未来情景进行概率加权
贝叶斯情景分析（BSA）将结构化情景规划与贝叶斯概率论相结合，为不同的未来分配明确的先验概率，并在获得新证据或专家判断时对其进行更新。其结果是跨情景的概率加权结果分布，而不是一组等权重或任意加权的情景。
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来源
- Aven, T., & Reniers, G. (2013). How to define and interpret a probability in a risk and safety setting. Safety Science, 51(1), 223–231. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2012.06.005 ↗
- Lempert, R. J., Popper, S. W., & Bankes, S. C. (2003). Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis. RAND Corporation. ISBN: 9780833032973
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Bayesian Scenario Analysis — Probabilistic scenario weighting via Bayesian inference. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/simulation/bayesian-scenario-analysis
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