Offender-Based Transition Matrix
An offender-based transition matrix describes the probability that an offender's next offense is of a particular crime type given the type of the current offense. Introduced to criminology by Blumstein, Cohen, Das, and Moitra in 1988, it treats each individual's ordered sequence of offenses as a Markov-style process and asks the central question of the specialization-versus-versatility debate: do offenders tend to repeat the same kind of crime, or do they switch freely across crime types?
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来源
- Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., Das, S., & Moitra, S. D. (1988). Specialization and seriousness during adult criminal careers. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 4(4), 303–345. DOI: 10.1007/BF01065086 ↗
- Paternoster, R., Brame, R., Piquero, A., Mazerolle, P., & Dean, C. W. (1998). The forward specialization coefficient: Distributional properties and subgroup differences. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 14(2), 133–154. DOI: 10.1023/A:1023096419348 ↗
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 22). Offender-Based Transition Matrix Analysis of Crime-Type Switching. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/criminology/offender-based-transition-matrix
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