方法对比

	健康经济学中的支付意愿 (WTP)	Markov 模型在卫生经济学中的应用
领域	卫生经济学	卫生经济学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1980s	1983
提出者	Carson & Louviere (stated preference/contingent valuation methods)	Beck & Pauker (medical decision analysis, Massachusetts General Hospital)
类型	Method	Method
开创性文献	Carson, R. T., & Louviere, J. J. (2011). A Common Nomenclature for Stated Choice Studies. In S. Hess & A. Daly (Eds.), Choice Modelling: The State of the Art and the State of Practice. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.	Beck, J. R., & Pauker, S. G. (1983). The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis. Medical Decision Making, 3(4), 419-458.
别名	WTP, contingent valuation, stated preference method	Markov model, state transition model, cohort simulation
相关	5	5
摘要	Willingness to pay (WTP) is an economic valuation method that elicits what individuals or society are willing to spend for a health benefit or to avoid a health risk. Rooted in contingent valuation (Carson & Louviere, 1980s), WTP is used to monetize health outcomes for cost-benefit analysis and to infer implicit cost-effectiveness thresholds from actual healthcare spending patterns. Unlike revealed preference (observing actual spending behavior), WTP uses stated preferences—surveys asking respondents: 'How much would you pay for this health improvement?'	A Markov model is a decision-analytic tool that simulates disease progression through defined health states over time, calculating cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to enable cost-effectiveness analysis. Developed by Beck and Pauker in 1983, Markov models are now the standard framework for projecting long-term outcomes of health interventions, especially chronic diseases where patients transition between clinical states (treatment response, disease progression, remission, death). Used by health technology assessment bodies and pharmaceutical companies to predict intervention value beyond trial duration.