方法对比

	Technology Foresight	Foresight Scenario Method
领域	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1995	1995
提出者	Ben R. Martin, Irene Miles, and the UK/Japanese foresight programmes	Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition
类型	Participatory future-oriented strategic process	Structured future-construction process
开创性文献	Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168.	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
别名	Foresight studies, Strategic technology forecasting, Future-oriented technology analysis	Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building
相关	4	4
摘要	Technology foresight is a systematic, participatory process of looking into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society in order to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Rather than predicting a single future, it brings experts and stakeholders together to explore plausible futures, build shared visions, and translate them into present-day priorities and action.	The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.