方法对比

	合成控制法 (SCM)	因果推断的工具变量（IV）方法
领域	因果推断	卫生经济学
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2003–2010	1990s (modern applications)
提出者	Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal (2003); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010)	Angrist & Pischke (applied econometrics); rooted in econometric theory
类型	Quasi-experimental causal inference	Method
开创性文献	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.	Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
别名	SCM, synthetic control, synth estimator, Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller method	IV, two-stage least squares, TSLS, causal estimation
相关	4	3
摘要	The Synthetic Control Method estimates the causal effect of a treatment or policy on a single treated unit by constructing a weighted combination of untreated units — the synthetic control — that closely resembles the treated unit before the intervention. The gap between the treated unit and its synthetic counterpart after the intervention is the estimated treatment effect.	Instrumental variables (IV) is an econometric method to estimate causal effects when treatment or exposure is not randomly assigned and confounding is severe or unmeasured. IV relies on a third variable (instrument) that influences treatment but does not directly affect the outcome, allowing researchers to isolate the causal effect from the noise of confounding. Developed extensively in econometrics (Angrist & Pischke, 1990s–2000s), IV methods are increasingly used in health economics and health services research to leverage natural experiments and policy changes.