方法对比

	Summative Evaluation	反事实影响评估 (CIE)
领域	Public Policy	因果推断
方法族	Process / pipeline	Regression model
起源年份	1967	1970s–2000s
提出者	Michael Scriven	Heckman, Imbens, Rubin, and the program evaluation literature
类型	Judgement-oriented evaluation function	Causal inference / program evaluation
开创性文献	Scriven, M. (1967). The methodology of evaluation. In R. W. Tyler, R. M. Gagné, & M. Scriven (Eds.), Perspectives of Curriculum Evaluation (pp. 39–83). Chicago: Rand McNally. ISBN: 9780528616600	Heckman, J. J., & Vytlacil, E. J. (2007). Econometric evaluation of social programs, Part I: Causal models, structural models and econometric policy evaluation. Handbook of Econometrics, 6B, 4779-4874.
别名	Outcome Judgement Evaluation, Accountability Evaluation	CIE, counterfactual evaluation, counterfactual policy evaluation, impact evaluation
相关	4	5
摘要	Summative evaluation is evaluation conducted to render an overall judgement of a program, policy or product — its merit, worth, effectiveness or impact — typically after it has been implemented or has matured. Named by Michael Scriven in his 1967 essay 'The Methodology of Evaluation' as the counterpart to formative evaluation, its purpose is to inform consequential decisions: whether to continue, expand, replicate, defund or certify an intervention. It addresses the bottom-line question 'did it work, and was it worth it?' for audiences such as funders, policymakers and the public.	Counterfactual Impact Evaluation is a family of causal methods that estimates the effect of an intervention by comparing what actually happened to participants with what would have happened had the intervention not taken place. Formalised in the Rubin Causal Model and extended by Heckman, Imbens and others, CIE underlies most modern program and policy evaluation practice.