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| 结构性断裂 TGARCH (具有结构性断裂的阈值 GARCH)× | GARCH 模型（波动率预测）× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 计量经济学 | 计量经济学 |
| 方法族 | Regression model | Regression model |
| 起源年份≠ | 1990-1993 | 1986 |
| 提出者≠ | Lamoureux & Lastrapes (structural breaks in GARCH); Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (TGARCH/GJR-GARCH asymmetry) | Tim Bollerslev |
| 类型≠ | Volatility model | Conditional volatility model |
| 开创性文献≠ | Lamoureux, C. G., & Lastrapes, W. D. (1990). Persistence in variance, structural change, and the GARCH model. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8(2), 225-234. DOI ↗ | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | SB-TGARCH, threshold GARCH with structural breaks, GJR-GARCH with structural breaks, break-adjusted TGARCH | GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini) |
| 相关≠ | 3 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Structural Break TGARCH extends the Threshold GARCH (GJR-GARCH) model to accommodate discrete, permanent shifts in the volatility process. By detecting structural breaks and incorporating them — either as regime-specific intercepts or dummy variables — the model separates genuine volatility persistence from spurious persistence induced by ignored regime changes, and preserves the asymmetric leverage effect that characterises equity and financial return data. | The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series. |
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